O J's Corner : Reflections

Crucial UP polls

The Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, due in February 2007, would prove to be very crucial in the national political scene.

For decades together Congress has been drubbed badly in Uttar Pradesh. At best its performance was bright in Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies, which are set apart for the Nehru-Gandhi family.

This time also, the LS polls proved this point. But beyond that, Congress failed miserably to capture the confidence of the people in UP in the Assembly elections. Local caste and Dalit issues have been dominating the Assembly elections, resulting in being detrimental to Congress hopes.

Lalu-Rabri combine, Mayawati or Mulayam Singh have been holding the fiefdom for so long now, with no immediate possibility for Congress revival in UP.

Rahul Gandhi, who is being groomed to take over responsible positions for the Congress and being not that brilliant in politics, recently blurted out that he would take on the unenviable task of leading Congress campaign in the forthcoming Assembly elections in UP. But the trouble-shooters were successful in getting the issue deflected.

But 2007 elections would influence his debut into more important political posturing. By that time, he would have been drafted into Congress hierarchy as a general-secretary.

There are political analysts who would predict that he would become the Prime Minister after Dr Manmohan Singh completes two terms as the Head of the Government. That would be a waiting period till 2014.

Politics that long being unpredictable and present permutations and combinations not likely to remain in tact for years on end, possibilities are that he would get accommodated mid-way.

Who knows Dr Singh could be given an honorable settlement in the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The present incumbent, Dr A P J Abdul Kalam, would complete his term in July 2007. It is not likely that he would get a second term.

I don’t think Rahul Gandhi would become a Minister in the Manmohan Singh Cabinet. His presence would be inconvenient to Singh as well as many other senior persons.

Until the time Sonia Gandhi makes up her mind, Rahul would work for the party and tour the country. His induction would be directly as Prime Minister.

That there are some indications of his being groomed soon, convulsions have started in the political scene.

The boiling cauldron is UP itself, with BSP, Congress, BJP and the Jan Morcha floated by V P Singh, aiming to dislodge Mulayam Singh Yadav from power.

Mulayam Singh is trying to butt out of caste campaigning by projecting the anti-people policies of the UPA Government.

It is organising pre-election campaign in all district quarters on June 13, the very day when the Left parties are observing nation-wide protest against fuel price hike.

By show-casing its Kanya Vidyadhan Yojna, it wants to emerge out of the caste conundrum, which is a very difficult task. Under this scheme, girls completing the 12th standard, from families living below the poverty line, would get Rs 20000 each. Last year, the government had disbursed Rs 300 crore under this scheme.The benefit is available to all castes, upper and backward included.

Mayawati is waiting in the wings to rule UP again. Perhaps the Congress will ride piggyback on her bandwagon.

BJP, smarting under infighting, departure of leaders like Uma Bharti, untimely death of Pramod Mahajan, and lack of charismatic young leaders, would not be able to put up a good fight against Congress for some time.

By that time, Rahul Gandhi would be projected to become the Prime Minister.