O J's Corner : Reflections

Depleting grain buffer

People take stock of the trends of prevailing as well as promising production to predict the futures market of any commodity.

We have stumbled upon a world situation in which food grain production is dwindling, so much so that it is a matter of concern.

Washington-based Earth Policy Institute has drawn a grim picture of world food grain production this year.

It would have a cascading effect on overpopulated Indian sub-continent and sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the world’s hungry people live.

One should not be baffled by the statistics reeled out by world watch bodies, but statistics apart, the situation would be serious in price fluctuation.

The world food grain production would be down by 61 million tonnes for people’s consumption.

At the end of the year, the buffer stock would be sufficient to feed the people for 57 days only. This is going to be a record, rather bad record, for the have-nots. When prices soar, the hungry would face serious starvation problems.

We have not faced such an eventuality since 1972, when the buffer stock had come down to 56 days. The consequences were phenomenal, the prices had doubled and inflation had shot up, forcing the people to squirm. It worked like a double jeopardy as the earnings were poor.

Thank God, India had woken up to the scenario and invited bids to import 3.5 million tonnes of wheat. The US had predicted that wheat prices would increase by 14 per cent this year.

Worried by booming oil prices which had sent shivers down the spine of   importing countries, India being in the ring, the country has to hunt for food as well. Importing both would stymie the economy. The negative potential would be far more remarkable for other importing countries.

In spite of the best efforts of providing irrigation facilities, Indian farmers have been at the mercy of the vagaries of the monsoons. It appears the total rainfall would not be wholesome for the farmers.

Rise in summer temperature during the growing season results in considerable decline in the harvest output.

Moreover, the water table in most of the grain-growing countries is depleting. This is more true in the case of India and China who harbour half of the world’s population.

One should note that India has called for a second green revolution calling for better production and productivity. We should produce more from less extent of land.

Norman Borlaug had taught us how to leapfrog into grain production when we were on the verge of starvation. Messiahs come when the people need them.

By statistics, rate of population is slowing down, but the number of people being added on earth every year is 70 million. We have to provide them food, for which production should get a boost one way or other.

The point of concern is that this additional burden of human resources would be largely confined to the Indian sub-continent and sub-Saharan Africa.

In the face of it, our estimates of wheat production this year has fallen from 73 million tonnes to 68 million tonnes.

Let us manage the situation, and manage it sumptuously, going in for better irrigation and consequent production as well as requisite import to feed us all.